N 110985 On balance, when the huge benefits that EU membership has brought to Italy and the rest of the European continent are considered, its unlikely that leaving the union would help Italy and its people in the short term. Bloomberg. In Italy, we could see equities drop 50%, whereas Italian sovereign bond yields could rise as much as 480 basis points (bps). Italy is favourite to be next country to leave EU ahead of Sunday's election Have you asked whether Italy will leave the EU? Taking over as a technocrat only eighteen months ago, he resigned in July when the anti-establishment Five Star Movement (M5S) withdrew its support from the governing coalitionaccusing Draghi of failing to do enough to address Italys worsening economic conditionsand the League and Forza Italia followed suit. "The Italian party system is already overcrowded by the presence of various parties being critical of the EU, in various forms and degrees: Salvinis League, Melonis Brothers of Italy and the Five Star Movement. Opinion polls have all predicted that Giorgia Meloni's nationalist Brothers of Italy group will emerge as the leading party on Sunday and share power with its allies the League, headed by Matteo Salvini, and Silvio Berlusconi's Forza Italia. Letta, who some see as a continuation of Italys old politics, has stated that this election will decide whether Italy will stick with the likes of France, Germany, Spain, and the European Union (EU) in general, or side with right-leaning European partners like Poland and Hungary as primary partners. Home of the Daily and Sunday Express. This may include adverts from us and 3rd parties based on our understanding. A fantastic benefit of the European Union is the ability of its citizens to travel freely to any other member state. Ratchetting up tensions at the end of a largely lacklustre campaign, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen warned late thursday that Europe had "the tools" to deal with Italy if things go in a "difficult direction". Diplomats and journalists look on in slack disbelief as the . A Meloni premiership may bring this approach to an end. "I think the data shows that for all his apparent power and 'successes' in Brussels, President Macron is on very shaky ground in France in advance of the next presidential elections," he said. Our Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles. The UK was never well-installed in Brussels. European Commission, The EU Commission okays unconditionally the creation of a joint venture by major telecommunication providers to support digital marketing and advertising activities in France, Germany, Italy, Spain and the UK (Deutsche Telekom / Orange / Telefnica / Vodafone), 10 February 2023, e-Competitions February 2023, Art. This was another reason why the EU was established, to address the issues that were hampering the profitability and smooth running of cross-border trade in Europe. By Ilva Tare and Akshat Dhankher Filter Results Hide On September 25, Italian voters will elect a slimmed-down parliament in what polls predict will be a triumph for the conservative coalition led by Giorgia Meloni's far-right Brothers of Italy party, which could win 45 percent of the vote. By Kyle Farrell 13:34, Fri, Feb 5, 2021 . 20th September 2022. You can unsubscribe at any time. There are many small towns in Southern Italy that initially welcomed these new refugees from Africa and other regions. A 2020 constitutional referendum reduced the number of seats in the lower house from 630 to 400, and shrank the senate from 315 members to 200. You accept the use of cookies as per our, Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security, Adrienne Arsht Rockefeller Foundation Resilience Center, Rafik Hariri Center & Middle East programs, 4 percent in 2018 to more than 25 percent in 2022. Our experts decipher the State of the European Union Address. Despite the perceptions of some, Giorgia Meloni is not strictly opposed to the EU and does not actually advocate leaving the union. Could Italy become Europe's newest problem child? PARIS/BERLIN/BUDAPEST, Sept 23 (Reuters) - The European Union's powerhouses will have to tread carefully around Giorgia Meloni if the nationalist candidate's coalition wins Italy's election on Sunday, or risk pushing Rome towards Hungary and Poland, European officials said. It is in the best interest of every nation to follow an independent foreign policy, a policy that reflects what is in the nations best interests. Post-Brexit Guide: What's been the impact and how did it happen? The concept is a familiar one for investors: At a moment of political stress, Italy could crash out of the euro and return to the old lira as a result of bad government decisions, be it by design or accident. vowmeeja 2022/09/16 15:49. Instead, as she went on to say, her main ambition is to protect the national interests of Italy. Countries like India have stayed away from signing free trade agreements with nations in the EU precisely because of these reasons. Of the EU's "Big Four," respondents in Italy were the most in favour of leaving the EU in five years' time if Brexit is seen to be benefiting the UK, with 45 per cent either agreeing or strongly agreeing with the idea of an "Italexit.". UkraineAlert is a comprehensive online publication that provides regular news and analysis on developments in Ukraines politics, economy, civil society, and culture. A Meloni-led government could well be at odds with the Commission from an early stage. On the other hand, India is very close to signing a free trade agreement with the United Kingdom. Each year tens of thousands of refugees arrive in Italy by sea, often taking dangerous journeys across the Mediterranean to reach the European continent. Member nations of the EU have certain flexibility when it comes to their foreign policy but not entirely. "Overall, I am broadly negative on Italys long term prospects in the EU," said Dr Eoin Drea, a Senior Research Officer at the Wilfried Martens Centre for European Studies in Brussels. Underscoring challenges ahead for Meloni and Europe, former Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, whose Forza Italia party belongs to Meloni's coalition, said Russia had been "pushed" into the war on Ukraine. If they have an important issue to discuss, who should they discuss it with? All rights reserved. But it talks about . The Local Italy - [email protected] 18 Sep, 2022 Updated Sun 18 Sep 2022 06:46 CEST. Following a similar trend, the participants polled in each country were asked in a separate question whether they thought the UK would benefit from leaving the EU in the long-term, even if there were short-term economic problems. 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By In light of the landmark 1.82 trillion EU budget and COVID-19 recovery package, political commentators have questioned the timing of the announcement of a new Eurosceptic party in Italy and its long-term prospects. Paris has been warned by Italian officials from the outgoing administration not to seek public confrontation with Meloni to prevent pushing her into a corner where she might sense little choice but to deepen ties with Orban. Ilva Tare and Akshat Dhankher. Mr Salvini's change in tune comes after a change in circumstances. Serbia was the most affected non-EU country of those included in the report, with 107 outbreaks. In Brussels, officials are unsure how Meloni will handle Italy's part of the European recovery plan, which is meant to unlock 192 billion euros in return for domestic reforms. Copy/paste the article video embed link below: Employee fixes flags before the European Commission President receives the Italian Prime Minister for a meeting on December 12, 2018, in Brussels. People less likely to vote leave in every EU member state for which data was available than in 2016-17, survey finds. This recent 2022 election has once again brought to a. By comparison, Italy has around 73 MEPs in the EU parliament. One of the key reasons they did this was because the younger Italians moved out of these towns for better opportunities. But political parties in the country have become more Eurosceptical in recent years, with three of the dominant movements within Italy's House of Deputies being overtly so. By (Episode 1) ASEAN's tech elite from Cisco and Infineon plot the region's economic future in this new series with Haslinda Amin. Earlier, Berlusconi set off a firestorm saying that Russian President Vladimir Putin had been "pushed" into invading Ukraine and had only wanted to put "decent people" in charge of Kyiv. In 2021, Markus Gastinger, a political scientist at the University of Salzburg, created an "EU exit index" that placed the country atop likely nations to leave the bloc, but the xit movement. This intergenerational difference is not unique to Italy; in fact, its reflected very consistently across the entire continent. With the strength of the conservative coalition, which also includes the populist League and center-right Forza Italia parties, the latter may become reality. Over the last few months, that early unity has fallen away, exposing cracks in the 27-nation alliance's foundations. In Italy the corresponding figures were 37.2% and 44.3%, and in France 44% and 48.8%. Here's everything you need to know. 23rd September 2022. While not present in the European Parliament as UKIP and the Brexit Party, Italy also has a political party dedicated to leaving the bloc named Italexit that boasts a presence in the Chamber of Deputies and Senate. Written off two months ago, after he pulled his support for Prime Minister Mario Draghi and sank the unity government, Conte has revived 5-Star fortunes by promoting its flagship "citizens income" welfare for the poor which the right wants to dismantle. The largest decline in leave support was in Finland, where 28.6% of respondents who declared which way they would vote in a Brexit-style referendum answered leave in 2016-2017, against only 15.4% in 2020-2022. See here for a complete list of exchanges and delays. Bitcoin Faces Fresh Challenges After Debt Deal Moves Forward, Citigroup Warns, FTX Objects to Extension of Mediation Talks for Bankrupt Crypto Lender Genesis, Key House Republicans Unveil Crypto Market Structure Draft Bill. It is the Italian millennials which have been truly sacrificed by successive Italian governments in order to preserve the privileges of the older generations.". Spain, Greece, Italy and France could one day push to try to leave the European Union. The Czech Republic is one of the EU's younger members, having joined the bloc in 2004. There are some crumbs of good news for the EU in the Euronews poll data. At a Glance 01-03-2022. A Pew Research Center survey of 10 EU member states conducted in spring last year also found large majorities in nearly every country surveyed held a broadly favourable opinion of the bloc, with a median of 72% viewing it in a favourable light compared with 26% who had a broadly unfavourable opinion. Either way, much is at stake for Italy, which faces a snap election at a time when the country is reeling from converging crises of inflation, surging cost of living, uncertain energy security, and the ongoing war in Ukraine. 2023 Atlantic Council renegotiating Italy's EU recovery plan to take account of surging prices, and encouraging employers to . It is a threat to the EU and to Italy," said Rolf Mntzenich, a lawmaker in German Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democrats party. Reuters, the news and media division of Thomson Reuters, is the worlds largest multimedia news provider, reaching billions of people worldwide every day. After 2022 brought the hottest European summer on record, European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen in September announced the plan to double the firefighting air fleet. With the Ukraine war and growing energy crisis absorbing the focus in Brussels, the EU may not be enthusiastic to work with the likes of Meloni, who could lead Italy down the path already traveled by Hungary or Poland, as Letta warns. Mario Draghi, and Italys political stability, are gone. New Atlanticist This is changing and Germany is in the process of getting deindustrialized because it reluctantly joined the sanctions against Russia. The defense apparatus of the EU in many ways in NATO, which is dominated by the United States, which is not an European nation. The crowd was considerably smaller than the one that turned out on Wednesday in the same space for the sole get-together of Meloni, Salvini and Berlusconi, who have tried to downplay their own policy divisions. IranSource provides a holistic look at Irans internal dynamics, global and regional policies, and posture through unique analysis of current events and long-term, strategic issues related to Iran. The right-wing Swedish Democrats win 11 extra seats making them the second-biggest party in the country. The industry leader for online information for tax, accounting and finance professionals. But will Italians be better off under the leadership of a so-called sovereign coalitionor is this the final episode of populist politicians exploiting the hearts of disappointed citizens? The complex calculations required by a hybrid proportional/first-past-the-post electoral law mean it may be many hours before a precise count of parliamentary seats is available. Italy helped form a vital foundation of the EU in 1957 when Rome hosted the ceremony signing the European Economic Community treaty. But attitudes have changed since then, as a study conducted in early 2020 by research group Behavio found EU approval was the lowest of the 27 member states. "In other words, there are many shades of Euroscepticism, meaning that increased discontent with the functioning of the EU does not necessarily imply real support for Italexit," he added. Since taking his latest term, he has received congratulations from Putin and his authoritarian streak may eventually wear thin with EU chiefs, leading them to oust Hungary before the country leaves. EU terrified as Greece, Italy, Spain and France could spark crisis . "There could be changes in their approach to the reforms that were required by Europe to be able to get the money," Talani flagged. Vladimir Putin's "special military operation" has seen Russian troops occupy tracts of Ukrainian land for months, with the EUand its allies acting to protect its neighbour. For example, between 2012 and 2016 the GDP of Germany rose by 19%, the GDP of the Netherlands rose by 14% and the GDP of Portugal rose by 10%. Share. Voters in Italy, . The pages of the past 1000 years of European history are filled with wars, conflicts, rebellions and numerous periods of widespread social upheaval. Fratelli d'Italia has argued for a slimmed down, less bureaucratic EU and has championed the primacy of Italian law in domestic issues. In an exclusive interview with Reuters in August 2022, Giorgia Meloni said that she does not mean that we want to destroy Europe, that we want to leave Europe, that we want to do crazy things.. Campaigning is banned on Saturday. "And this is borne out in how younger Italians are now flocking to the more anti-establishment political parties. In Spain, 35 per cent believed Brexit would ultimately be a success for the UK, while only 31 per cent of Germans agreed to some extent compared to 43 per cent who disagreed. Any decision should not be taken lighly. The Italian politician Gianluigi. Gallard said the fall in support for a leave vote most likely stemmed from a cumulative effect combining the EUs attitude towards the various crises of recent years, the radical rights moderation on the subject [of leaving the EU], and the many vicissitudes of Brexit. After years of discussions, the foundation stone was laid for Italians to debate whether they want to remain in the EU or follow the United Kingdom out of the bloc. The overall effect was to depress the remain vote in the self-complete countries rather than to increase the leave vote, Hanson said.